
Here’s my question—
What’s Facebook gonna do with all that money?
As I’m sure you’ve heard, preliminary valuations for Facebook’s I.P.O. are at $100 billion. $100 billion. And they’re gonna do what with all that money?
Actually, let’s start with the valuation (there’s so much to talk about with this Facebook I.P.O., but let’s start there). LinkedIn tested the waters for social networking public offerings last month, and I’m sure their offering is influencing how people are viewing Facebook’s.
LinkedIn made $240 million in revenues last year. The company went public at 17 times that mark, way above other tech companies (Google, for one—Google is valued at six times its revenues). There was talk, inevitably, that the numbers were inflated.
Well, here’s what LinkedIn has done in the month since the public offering…fallen. The stock started at $94 a share, and now it’s at $67 a share. It’s very early, but still.
Compare that to what Google has done. Google started at $106, hit a high of $714 in 2007 right before the financial crisis and is at $500 right now.
According to some sources, Facebook’s revenues are at about $1 billion a year. We don’t know that for certain because it’s a private company and doesn’t have to divulge all its numbers.
Congress is talking about passing legislation that will force private companies to be more open with their books, which could affect how people view Facebook’s public offering. But we don’t know if Congress will actually pass the legislation or pass it before Facebook goes public, which could be first quarter 2012.
In any case, Facebook’s valuation is at $100 billion at the moment. That’s 100 times its revenues. If 17 times revenues is inflated, what’s 100 times?
Is this Tech Bubble 2.0? Lots of people are writing that it is. I certainly hope it’s not. I mean, while Facebook is still gaining users every year (the site went from 150 million users to 500 million in the last two years), it’s also starting to lose them.
Most of the site’s new users are just discovering it. Meanwhile, longtime users are starting to leave. According to the Washington Examiner, almost six million Facebook users deactivated their accounts last month alone.
It’s kinda hard not to be a little worried about a bubble if Facebook is peaking, especially when you consider how many other companies are included in the Facebook Ecosystem.
Plenty of companies survive solely on Facebook, and nearly every company out there has shifted a good chunk of its marketing and advertising budget towards Facebook. According to InsideFacebook.com, companies making social games for the Facebook Platform made $100s of millions in 2010. Social game developers alone.
But back to the initial question…What’s Zuckerberg and Co. gonna do with $100 billion?
Will they follow in Google’s footsteps and put their hands into pretty much everything? These days, Google is into cell phones, TVs, desktop software, ebooks…so on and so on.
Will Facebook try to make a run on Silicon Valley’s developer talent? I mean, there’s already a war going on between the two. According to TechCrunch, Facebook has won away well over 100 former Google employees. Google has handed out 20-percent raises left and right and given stock options of up to $500,000 in value.
So is this the Talent Bubble then? How much are these employees actually worth?
For that matter (and a much more important question): How much are these companies really worth? Pandora just went public for about 19 times its 2010 sales, although the company has never made a profit.
And what’s happened to Pandora stock in the last three days? It’s fallen. It hit a high of $24.25 on Wednesday (the day it went public) and is already down to $12.80.
So these are just some of my questions regarding Facebook’s public offering.
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