Financial Rollercoaster

July 29, 2011

We live in an era that is saturated by constant and continuous news updates, whether you want the news or not.  The amount of financially themed news stories has increased exponentially in the last three years due to the precarious state of the economy.  Just this week, there has been a variety of fiscal stories that have made front-page news.

The debt crisis is looming, with fierce debate ongoing concerning the debt ceiling and whether it should be increased, and if so, to what amount.  The amount of permissible public debt is set at $14.3 trillion dollars as stipulated by federal law.

That debt ceiling was reached on May 16th, at which point special measures were undertaken to extend the government’s ability to make payments until August 2nd, at which point the U.S. Treasury would no longer be fiscally solvent.  This would mean that the U.S. Treasury could not borrow additional money to pay bills, and while capital could come from alternative sources, the government would be forced to choose which obligations were of the utmost importance.

The President and Congress are in a stalemate over whether to raise this debt ceiling, with House Republicans refusing to raise the amount without some sort of deficit reduction and the President and Senate Democrats refusing to acquiesce to these demands.

Pictures surfaced yesterday of what many are hoping is the iPhone 5, which is supposed to be released sometime in September.  As anyone who even casually follows the tech industry knows, the release of a new and improved model of the iPhone results in widespread excitement and a massive flurry of people attempting to get their hands on one.

This of course means that Apple’s shares, which are already closing at their highest point ever ($403.41/ share), will skyrocket even further.  Any savvy financial investor wants to be informed immediately of activity that can potentially affect their portfolio.

While many smartphones come equipped with stock monitoring capabilities, many people continue to have feature phones.  Also, checking on stock quotes, currency conversions, portfolio tracking and monitoring financial news can be tedious and often times dangerous.  That is where an interactive voice response system can come in handy.

An IVR system can be easily accessed via any kind of phone (mobile, landline) and can be used hands-free as well.  Users can simply call in, speak or type their account information, and have all the financial information they require immediately at their fingertips (or more accurately, eardrums).  IVR enables users to stay continuously updated on their financial portfolio while on-the-go, without dangerously trying to read and commute.

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Is First Better?

July 29, 2011

Malcolm Gladwell published an article in the New Yorker not too long ago about innovation. One of the things he basically said is you don’t really want to be the first to innovate something. You want to come along later and make the innovation better.

Common business philosophy says you absolutely want to be the first no matter what. You want to get the product out first, market it first, grab as much of the market space as possible, as fast as possible.

Honestly, though, that’s not really how things work anymore, not in this era of goliath corporations. More often than not, the small innovators are gobbled up by the biggies, usually pretty early on.

It’s rare for a company like Facebook to go from a startup to a goliath. Had things gone the usual way, Mark Zuckerberg would have sold out to Microsoft or somebody when things started rolling.

Big corporations have people on staff who find little guys making new technologies within their industry. Once they find one, the big company makes an offer on the little guy.

The little guy usually accepts because the offers are often a lot of money for them and also it’s hard to compete against the big guys, which is what they might end up doing if they continued on their own.

Small companies can’t compete against corporations with tremendous R&D budgets. Which is why the biggies are out-innovating the innovators these days as well as taking them over. Someone makes something. A big company throws all its R&D money at it and makes it better.

It happened with BlackBerry maker RIM. For years, BlackBerries were the smartphones. They were the first really good, really popular smartphone out.

Then along came Apple, the computer giant. They blew BlackBerry out of the water from an innovation standpoint with the iPhone. From a sales point too eventually, along with Android.

And speaking of Android, Google is a perfect example of an out-innovate-the-innovator giant. That company is literally into everything these days.

So between the huge buyout offers and the R&D budgets of the giants, small innovators are often swept under the rug.

So is it really better to be first?

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Mobile Phones and Cancer: Ye...

July 28, 2011

Mobile phones are a vital part of how we function as a society today.  According to mobile statistics collected by Mobithinking.com, there are 5.3 billion mobile subscribers in the world (77% of the world’s population).  The sale of mobile devices steadily rose in 2010, with smart phones showing the strongest growth.

Eight trillion text messages will be sent in 2011.  Over 300,000 mobile applications have been developed in the last three years. Mobile Applications have been downloaded 10.9 billion times.  Mobile phones are used to surf the web, run applications, email, text, play games, bank, shop, receive news updates, watch videos, participate in social media, listen to music, and of course, make phone calls.

Based on the above data, it’s clear that users rely on their mobile phones, whether feature or smart, to perform an enormous number of tasks for them.  Mobile phones have become one of the most vital communications devices for both personal and professional use, and all signs point to mobile phone usage continuing to soar.

While this mobility is infinitely attractive to mobile users, there might be an extreme downside to this freedom of technology.  At the end of May, the World Health Organization (WHO) released a report that classified mobile phones as presenting a possible risk for a specific type of cancer in humans.

According to a joint report released by the WHO and the International Agency for Research on Cancer, mobile phones show limited evidence of carcinogenity.  The WHO has said that:  “A positive association has been observed between exposure to the agent and cancer for which a causal interpretation is considered by the Working Group to be credible.”  Scientists have theorized that this could potentially lead to a malignant type of brain cancer.

However, a new study released today by the Journal of the National Cancer Institute detailed how there was no link found between mobile phone use and cancer: “The absence of an exposure-response relationship either in terms of the amount of mobile phone use or by localization of the brain tumor argues against a causal association.”

So which is it?  Is there a heightened risk of developing a brain tumor from extended cell phone use or is there no risk at all?  These conflicting reports may leave mobile phone users confused.  Should they limit their talking time?  Should they feel free to gab away?

Only a slew of additional research studies will be able to concretely prove the effects of prolonged cell phone use one way or the other (remember the cell phone only came into popular usage in the late nineties).  In the meantime, there’s a plethora of alternative uses for mobile phones, and users can email and text in order to stay in constant contact while simultaneously minimizing the risk.

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Wireless Helping Economy

July 28, 2011

During the recession, mobile technology was one of the only sectors to experience innovation and growth. Now we might be using wireless spectrum sales to help get out of debt.

It’s amazing how mobile technologies are influencing not only our personal and work lives but also our society as a whole.

It’s probably a topic for another day, but sociologists will I’m sure be researching the impact of the mobile communications and technology revolution fifty years from now. They already are, although it’s still too early to see the true effects.

But anyway, mobile technologies are having a direct, real impact on our economy during this difficult time.

According to mobiThinking.com, there are 5.3 billion mobile phone users worldwide. There’s only 7 billion people on the entire planet, so that number is significant to say the least.

Information technology research firm Gartner reports that consumers bought 417 million mobile phones in the third quarter of 2010 alone—actually a 35 percent increase from the third quarter of 2009. (Smartphone sales were up 96 percent from the same time the year before.)

“This is the third consecutive double-digit increase in sales year-on-year, indicating that consumer demand is healthy,” said Gartner’s Carolina Milanesi.

According to international wireless association CTIA, total wireless revenues worldwide in 2010 were $160 billion. As of December 2010, the wireless industry had over 250,000 direct service provider employees worldwide.

We’re talking big business here. In fact, so big it might help us with our debt in a very direct way.

As new wireless networks have come out over the years (1G, 2G, 3G, 4G), countries have used sales of network rights to raise money. Britain raised $22.5 billion in a 3G auction in 2000. Portugal is hoping to use a 4G auction in the first quarter of 2012 to help get out of debt (including bailout debt).

So Congress is thinking of auctioning wireless spectrum here in the U.S. to help us do the same as Portugal. There’s a question of whether selling more spectrum will clog the network, which I’m sure is coming up in the debates. No one wants that. But debt help would certainly be beneficial.

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NLP and IVR

July 27, 2011

Yesterday’s blog discussed the developmental history of natural language processing (NLP) technology.  From the 1950s to today there have been various developments in the field of NLP that have made it a critical component of speech recognition technology and have enabled application development for myriad devices.

Speech recognition is only one of the functionalities that use NLP.  Other crucial tasks that NLP performs include automatic summarization (production of a readable summary of a text or a portion of a text), machine translation (the automatic translation of text from one language to another) and question answering (the capability of answering human-language questions).

Speech recognition is considered the opposite of text-to-speech, which is the process by which a computer system converts typed text into spoken words.  Speech recognition is the conversion of spoken words.  Voice recognition is featured in many interactive voice response applications and is helpful in enabling hands-free phone usage.

Often times an automatic speech recognition (ASR) functions more smoothly when the recognition system has been trained to detect the voice of a particular speaker.  However, speech recognition also works for multiple speakers, as the application is designed and programmed to recognize speech in general, without being customized to a single speaker.

There are many ways in which ASP can be effectively used.  It can be programmed into car or home audio systems in order to enable hands-free communication (voice dialing), appliance control (both issuing and processing verbal commands) and even data entry (users can submit credit card, billing or shipping information by simply reciting their info).

One practical use for NLP as documented by the Belgian technology consulting firm Nmahn is to conduct searches of both the Internet and computer databases.  Many search engines rely on Boolean searches to increase their searches.  Boolean searches are typically defined as ones that have tow data values that are true or false.

However, most search engines today are powered by NLP as opposed to Boolean, giving users what is traditionally thought of as a more friendly search engine experience.

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Apple Soars, RIM Falls

July 27, 2011

My post yesterday was about the BlackBerry and how it could make a comeback against the iPhone and Android. The thrust of the post was how BlackBerry needs a killer new smartphone and a branding makeover.

Today’s post is about the power of strong branding. It’s about the iPhone.

Lines are queuing up (figuratively, not literally) to buy the iPhone 5, which isn’t even out yet. There’s no better example of brand strength than that. The phone is supposed to come out this fall, but the buzz is already high.

Leading online shopping site PriceGrabber just did a survey of 2,852 online consumers regarding the new iPhone. Thirty-five percent said they were planning to buy the iPhone 5, either right when it comes out or in the first year. (Seven percent of those planning to buy said they’d do so in the first week, 14 percent in the first month, 30 percent before the end of the year, 51 percent within the first year.)

Sight unseen. The phone isn’t out yet.

Perhaps in anticipation of iPhone 5 sales, Apple stock has risen sharply in the last month. Mid-June it dipped from a year-to-date average of about $350 down to $320. Since then it’s jumped to around $400. (It broke the $400 barrier for the first time in the company’s history and is holding just a few dollars under that.)

Compare that to BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIM) and their stock performance this year—from holding steady around $60 a share during January through March to $25 since then.

RIM is planning to lay off 10 percent of its workforce—2,000 employees. Not exactly the action of a company confident in its future.

I think one stellar new phone that can rule both business and every day consumer markets could bring BlackBerry back. But layoffs don’t scream: “We’ve got something awesome in the works!”

Meanwhile, there’s no doubt of Apple’s strength, selling phones even before they come out on brand reputation and loyalty alone.

It’s the same basic product. But one company is soaring, the other falling—because of branding more than anything else, in my opinion. It’s an interesting thing to watch.

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Natural Language Processing

July 26, 2011

Natural language processing (also referred to as NLP) is the study and development of interactions between computers and human languages.  Most speech recognition technology utilized in interactive voice response (IVR) applications is based on natural language processing research and technology.

While NLP began as a facet of artificial intelligence, it has escalated into the exploration of how humans and computers interact. As anyone who has utilized speech recognition on a computer knows, it is often times difficult to speak in natural language (that is unaffected or unparsed) and have a machine be able to successfully recognize it.

A quick example: There are dictation programs that allow people utilizing a microphone to speak their words instead of typing them.  This is especially important to those who might not have the physical capability of typing for one reason or another.

Those who are unable to type rely on microphones that have the ability to interface with a computer and enables them to dictate their documents.  However, this process can be quite burdensome because a computer does not have the innate ear for language that a human does.  For example, instead of hearing “and,” the computer will hear “an.”  Instead of interpreting the proper name “Jill,” the computer will incorrectly type the word “gel.”  Obvious problems arise from the misinterpretation of natural language.

Natural language processing is a field that focuses on the linguistics of computation with the intent of improving and streamlining human-computer communication.  NLP is generally recognized to have originated in the 1950s, when scientists developed methods to test a computer’s ability to impersonate a human in real time.

The field has continued to develop, with scientists integrating knowledge from various disciplines (linguistics, computer science, statistics, et cetera.) in order to refine and improve machine translation, text-to-speech and language technology in general.

In our continuing analysis of unified and telecommunications, we will be examining the field of NLP and how it significantly improves the way in which human beings interact with machines.

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The BlackBerry Comeback

July 26, 2011

Comebacks are the stuff of legend in Hollywood. Of course, downfalls are the stuff of legend too. As well as comebacks followed by more downfalls.

But this post is about comebacks. This is Bruce Willis in Pulp Fiction or Robert Downey Jr. in Iron Man. This is about BlackBerries returning to the top.

Research in Motion (RIM) is set to cut 2,000 jobs (10 percent of its workforce) as company stock prices continue to fall.

Apple and Android have drubbed BlackBerries in the last couple years, and RIM’s stocks have plummeted. In January of this year they were at around $60—today they’re at $25. Hence the layoffs.

A big problem seems to be phone and brand identification. BlackBerries have long been the go-to for the business sector because they integrate well with Microsoft Outlook and other business apps.

That’s how the public views them. They see businessmen using them—meanwhile, kids with faux-hawks have Droids.

The fact is, the average guy or girl on the street is way more interested in a flash screen and media setup than Outlook integration (whether they want a faux-hawk or not). They want to get on Facebook or listen to music or watch a movie.

You can do those things on BlackBerries (only a couple have big enough screens, actually), but the company doesn’t market their smartphones that way. BlackBerry Messenger for instant messaging is pretty cool, but even that makes more sense for business. It’s about branding and about the cool factor.

Another biiiig part of the problem for BlackBerries now is the business sector turning to Androids and iPhones. That really hurts. Only time will tell if Androids and iPhones can function as well as BlackBerries for business, but if they do, RIM is in big trouble.

But…

All the company needs is a Pulp Fiction or Iron Man. It only takes one big hit to get back on top.

RIM has said they’re cutting their workforce to “focus on areas that offer the highest growth opportunities.”

For them, I hope that means a totally kick-ass smartphone that works for businesses and is cool enough for the kids with the faux-hawks (and the average guy or girl). And they make appropriately cool ads (think Droid ads). It’s all they’d need. And it’d be a Hollywood comeback everyone could appreciate.

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RIM Lays Off 2,000…Other T...

July 25, 2011

There are so many things to talk about today I thought I’d just do a hodgepodge post to cover them all.

First a couple of humanity items…

The Norway thing. I actually don’t even have words for that, so I’m not going to address it other than to say what a senseless waste, which I’m sure is what most people are thinking.

Also, singer-songwriter Amy Winehouse died over the weekend. They don’t know the cause of death yet. Regardless of how she died, it’s a shame to lose a young artist. I for one don’t think there are enough artists in the world.

On the telecom front…

RIM, makers of BlackBerry smartphones, is planning to cut 2,000 jobs as the company continues to lose market share to Android and Apple.

According to Bloomberg, RIM is cutting one-tenth of its workforce (down to 17,000 total employees) to “focus on areas that offer the highest growth opportunities.”

I’m not exactly sure what that means, but it’s not the biggest surprise to see the company cut back. Apple and Android are taking over the market. BlackBerries are even starting to lose out to Androids and iPhones in the business sector, BlackBerry’s bread and butter.

On the domestic and world economy…

U.S. lawmakers have yet to raise the federal debt limit, keeping the nation at risk of defaulting. In response, the stock markets have dipped a bit. Nothing to be alarmed about, but illustrating some uncertainty nonetheless.

To make matters worse, Greece seems likely to default on its bailout loans despite austerity measures (and subsequent protests and riots). The European Union is planning a debt swap to ease Greece’s burden—adding as much as 30 years to the term, according to the BBC.

But rating agency Moody’s has dropped Greece’s rating to just above default. “The announced EU programme…implies that the probability of a distressed exchange, and hence a default, on Greek government bonds is virtually 100%,” the agency said.

Unfortunately, some believe a Greek default could affect the U.S. economy, including former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan. He said it could send us into another recession.

For all our sakes, I really hope he’s wrong.

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Phone Security in the Modern...

July 22, 2011

On July 10, 2011, News of the World printed their final edition after a 168-year run.  News of the World was the biggest-selling English language newspaper in the world with sales averaging almost 3 million copies per week.  This abrupt folding of such an enormous publication came as a shock and left over 200 people unemployed.  However, the paper has little choice but to shutter, as it was under extreme duress due to the widespread phone hacking and corruption allegations leveled against it.

According to the BBC, the newspaper gathered information for their articles by listening to people’s mobile phone voicemail messages.  While the phone hacking allegations are the most prevalent, there are additional allegations that the newspaper procured information by paying police and colluding with politicians to gain unauthorized access to classified information.

There were numerous people targeted by this phone hacking scandal, which was found to have ultimately gone on for years.  Celebrities, politicians and even members of the British Royal Family were targeted.  The News of the World endured several years of these allegations in spite of countless lawsuits and resulting settlements.

However, it was revealed that in early July of 2011, News of the World reporters were not only using this phone hacking to tap the telephone lines of public figures, but rather was also hacking the phones of murder victims and their relatives, the relatives of deceased British soldiers and the phones of those who died in the 7/7 London bombings.   This discovery caused widespread public outrage which led to advertiser boycotts and the rapid closing of the News of the World.

News of the World has been accused of hiring private investigators to hack into both the voicemail and physical phone interface of the above-mentioned phone victims.  Reporters were able to see emails, text messages, voice mails and even photos and information stored on the phone through this mobile phone hacking.  Journalists used this information to publish “scoop” stories from the information they had discovered from the cell phones.

The News of the World phone hacking scandal might currently be the most popular telecommunications scandal to date, but it is certainly not the first.  There are many threats to phone security, especially mobile phone security.  From malware and spyware to phishing and premium billing, there are many ways in which people can be prayed upon when utilizing their phones.

An interactive voice response system equipped with the proper speech recognition technology could go far to offer security.  All data passed through phone lines is either stored onsite with the customer or offsite at hosted data centers.  Users could program IVR systems to only perform certain functions when they were commanded to by a certain voice.  Voice and speech recognition technology would come in infinitely handy in this type of scenario, as users could rest assured that their voicemails, text messages and emails could only be read by them and them alone.

IVRs are built to offer this type of high-level security, as they store data from some of the most top-secret companies in the world.    For those looking into telephonic security precautions, IVR is the way to go.

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